MODELING THE SPREAD OF TUBERCULOSIS IN DISASTER SITUATIONS USING SEIR MODEL

Abstract

The spread of tuberculosis (TB) and disaster are two events that both have a negative impact, but when they occur together, there is oftena neglect of the spread of TB. The number of individuals piling up in refugee camps with different disease histories could be a place for TB to spread. This study aims to analyze parameters that are important factors in modeling the spread of TB in disaster situations with the SEIR model. This study involved 75 respondents from TB program managers in cities and sub-districts. Respondents involved in focus group discussions (FGD) are those who have handled TB cases in disaster situations such as floods, earthquakes, and social disasters. The results obtained are that there are two groups of obstacles in the management of TB cases in disaster situations, namely environmental factors and habitual factors. These two factors influence the process of case discovery and healing. Based on the results obtained, the effort that needs to be made in disaster situations is to increase the healing process to more than three times under
normal conditions. This needs to be done because a buildup of infected populations will occur and be visible after a few months after the disaster.