AN ASSESSMENT OF A FRACTIONAL-ORDER EPIDEMIOLOGICAL SIMULATION AND THE INFLUENCE OF VACCINATION ON COVID-19 DYNAMICS IN BANGLADESH

Abstract

This paper advises employing a fractional-value SEIR epidemic model with immunization for investigating at how COVID-19 spreads. It is clear that the model's solutions are positive and limited. When the fundamental reproduction number R₀ is less than 1, stability analysis shows that the equilibrium free of disease E₀ is asymptotically constant both locally and globally. When R₀ is more than 1, the equilibrium with infection E₁ is stable. Adding a vaccination parameter θ to the model considerably decreases the reproduction number R₀. This shows how well vaccination works to stop the spread of disease. We use real-time COVID-19 data from Bangladesh to figure out the model parameters. We use the Adams-Bashforth-Moulton technique to run statistical simulations and show the results in figure. The findings indicate that the fractional-order SEIR model is superior and more effective in assessing the impacts of immunization compared to the conventional integer-order model.