MODELING AND ANALYSIS OF PHOTOVOLTAIC MODULE DEGRADATION IN A HYBRID ON-GRID SOLAR POWER SYSTEM: A CASE STUDY OF THE BPMP COMPUTER LABORATORY IN WEST PAPUA PROVINCE

Abstract

The growing global energy demand and the urgency of climate change mitigation have accelerated the deployment of renewable energy, particularly solar power, as a key strategy for achieving sustainable and low-carbon energy systems. In West Papua, Indonesia, where access to conventional electricity networks is often limited and climatic conditions are harsh, Hybrid On-Grid Solar Power Systems (PLTS-Hybrid) offer a promising solution to support reliable electricity supply in educational facilities such as the Computer Laboratory of the Education Quality Development Center (Balai Pengembangan Mutu Pendidikan, BPMP). However, the long-term performance of such systems is strongly affected by photovoltaic (PV) module degradation, which leads to a gradual reduction in power output and system efficiency.

This study aims to: (1) analyse the environmental and technical factors influencing PV module degradation under tropical humid conditions in West Papua; (2) develop degradation models based on linear and exponential approaches to predict long-term module performance; and (3) evaluate the impact of degradation on annual energy yield and the overall performance of the Hybrid On-Grid system. A quantitative approach is employed, combining mathematical modelling and computational simulation. The analysis uses primary data from the existing PLTS-Hybrid system (module specifications and physical conditions) and secondary data from the Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) and international literature.

Using an initial module power (P₀) of 1000 Wp and an assumed annual degradation rate of 0.8%, the simulations indicate that module power decreases to approximately 840 W (linear model) and 851.6 W (exponential model) after 20 years, corresponding to a performance loss of about 15–16%. This decline translates into a reduction in annual energy yield of roughly 20– 23% over the same period. Climatic characteristics of West Papua—high average temperatures (27–32°C), relative humidity above 80%, and intense solar and UV radiation—are expected to increase the actual degradation rate to around 1.0–1.3% per year, making the simulation results conservative. The exponential model is found to better represent real field behaviour, as it captures the non-linear nature of long-term PV degradation under combined thermal, environmental, and mechanical stressors.

The findings highlight that PV module degradation is a critical variable that must be explicitly considered in the design, planning, and operation of Hybrid On-Grid PV systems in tropical regions. Mitigation strategies such as the use of high-quality, climate-resilient modules, improved thermal and mechanical design, scheduled preventive maintenance, real-time performance monitoring, and capacity building for local technicians are essential to maintain system performance and extend the operational lifetime of PLTS-Hybrid installations in West Papua.