ANALYSIS OF OUTFLOW TIME SERIES FOR KUFA BARRAGE

Abstract

Efficient management of water resources in barrage reservoirs requires a comprehensive understanding of future water availability. This paper focuses on the Kufa barrage, situated on the Euphrates River in the Najaf Governorate, specifically within the city of the Kufa. An annual time series of outflow discharge data for 31 years (1994–2024) was analyzed to assess short -term hydrological trends. A linear trend model was fitted to the historical data, and a synthetic sequence of future discharges was generated using classical time series modeling techniques. Minitab22 statistical software was employed for all time series analyses, including model fitting and forecasting. The paper presents the data, statistical outputs, and forecasts in both tabular and graphical formats, offering valuable insights for future water resource planning and reservoir operation strategies. The study concluded that the ARIMA (2,1,2) model is the most suitable among the evaluated alternatives for representing and forecasting the given time series data.